Market Pulse Monthly: S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and IBIT BTC / Bitcoin
End of Period: Friday, January 30, 2026
SPX (S&P 500)
Market Regime: Uptrend
Monthly Consideration: Hold (effective Monday, February 2, 2026, at the open)
Brief:
The S&P 500 continues to operate within a strong bullish regime, indicating sustained underlying structural support. However, price action was unable to exceed the prior week’s close, resulting in a Hold signal. This behavior suggests a consolidation phase following recent strong advances. The index concluded the month of January with notable gains, reinforcing positive investor sentiment heading into the new quarter.
NDX (NASDAQ 100)
Market Regime: Uptrend
Monthly Consideration: Hold (effective Monday, February 2, 2026, at the open)
Brief:
Despite a modest pullback from recent highs, the NASDAQ 100 remains firmly positioned within a bullish regime, confirming that its longer-term upward trajectory remains intact. The marginal close below the prior period’s level activates a Hold recommendation, signaling a digestion phase after recent strength. January delivered strong performance for the technology-heavy index, supported by favorable earnings expectations and continued growth momentum.
IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust)
Market Regime: Downtrend
Monthly Consideration: Sell / Hedge (effective Monday, February 2, 2026, at the open)
Brief:
IBIT registered a decisive down impulse during the period, confirming a bearish regime and triggering a Sell/Hedge signal. The move lower from prior levels indicates accelerating selling pressure as the market searches for a new structural base. The ETF ended January materially lower than where it began the month, marking a challenging start to the year for the digital asset space as post-launch volatility continues to normalize.
Macro Summary
Market sentiment remains cautiously constructive as the January reporting cycle concludes. Central bank communication reaffirmed a firm commitment to inflation targets, keeping near-term rate cuts off the table and introducing intermittent volatility across mid- to long-duration yields.
Equity markets demonstrated resilience by consolidating gains rather than retracing meaningfully. With global macro catalysts largely subdued, investor focus shifted back toward corporate earnings, which broadly met or exceeded expectations, providing fundamental support for current equity valuation levels.