Market Pulse Weekly: S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and IBIT BTC / Bitcoin
End of Week: Friday, October 24, 2025
SPX (S&P 500)
Market Regime: Uptrend
Weekly Consideration: Buy (effective Monday, October 27, 2025, at the open)
Brief:
The S&P 500 concluded the week with a notable push higher, securing a close above last week’s level. This upward movement confirms the underlying positive momentum and maintains the index firmly within a bullish market regime. The weekly trading action indicates intermediate strength and suggests a positive outlook heading into the next trading session.
NDX (NASDAQ 100)
Market Regime: Uptrend
Weekly Consideration: Buy (effective Monday, October 27, 2025, at the open)
Brief:
The NASDAQ 100 showed significant strength this week, closing higher than the previous Friday. The technology-heavy index remains in a bullish market regime, with the positive close signaling a continuation of the upward impulse. The market behavior reflects broad strength in the large-cap growth sector, aligning with an aggressive posture for the coming week.
IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust)
Market Regime: Downtrend
Weekly Consideration: Hold (effective Monday, October 27, 2025, at the open)
Brief:
IBIT ended the week with a positive closing price relative to the previous Friday, but it remains situated in a bearish market regime. This action suggests consolidation after a period of weakness. Despite the minor weekly gain, the technical structure advises a neutral stance, indicating that traders should hold their current position while the instrument attempts to stabilize within its broader downtrend channel.
Macro Summary
The broader market narrative for the week centered heavily on shifting expectations for U.S. monetary policy. Following a lower-than-expected inflation (CPI) report, market participants solidified expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is poised to cut short-term interest rates in the near term.
This data-driven optimism has fueled equity markets, as exemplified by the strength in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. Despite the positive news on the inflation front, overall macrofinancial uncertainty remains a factor, and some analysts are anticipating a return of higher equity volatility in the final quarter of the year.
The focus now shifts to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week, where the market is pricing in a high probability of a rate cut.